Re: Curtains: flop decision
I like the $400 bet here for a few reasons. Maybe some of these are stupid, but since so many like the idea of checking, I thought I'd mention them...
Some big stacks get loose with defending their blinds, so I wouldn't be too concerned about his preflop call. I think it is likely that I have the best hand and would bet for value.
I bet to show I wasn't "stealing" preflop.
I bet to show I'm not afraid of playing a hand with the big stack.
I have a ton of outs if he calls.
A bet here might get me a free card on the turn (if I want it).
I can (and probably will) fold if he check/raises all in. I will still have the 2nd biggest stack by a large margin.
If I check behind, I'm inviting him to bluff me out of the pot on the turn (would anyone who checks the flop call a pot size bet on a turn that is a blank?).
If I check and a club or Ace hits the turn, I'm not likely to get paid off unless he has a flush or weaker Ace.
A read on villain would of course help.
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