Re: Curtains: flop decision
thinking about this hand as "being ahead" is kind of silly. Getting allin on the flop is a disaster for us. You are usually at best close to a coinflip against any logical hand they may have and you are 2nd chipleader by a longshot.
Also checking is +EV too, because you can hit a huge hand and win a lot of chips, you may make a continuation bet on the turn to win the pot and etc etc. Sometimes you will end up losing a small pot and those are the breaks, but it avoids the unpleasantness of being checkraised allin. Im still a signifigant favorite to win the pot even after checking the flop, and sometimes may win a huge hand in a situation where my opponent has close to zero outs, if a club were to fall.
Another note...if they bet on the turn and I have missed, a tricky play is to call, with the intention of bluffing on the river if you miss again. If the opponent checks the river in this scenario they are almost surely folding to a large river bet. If they follow through and bet the river, then you just fold.
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