[Pog0]

[ QUOTE ]
River: (4.50 BB) 8 (3 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls.

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I guess the difference is that in your line, you got the same number of bets but you gave him a free chance to win, especially since he may have check/called or bet/folded on a card above 9.

I think that anyone who bet/calls the river is also ready to call down the turn and river.

The real question here is if we get 1 by only betting the river often enough from the people who would fold to compensate for the times we get 2 from those who call down.

If the number of people who will give us 2 bets >50% of the people who gives us 1 at the end, then it's better to bet the turn (negating the times we get 2 on the river like this because these people will also call the turn).

Keep in mind that anyone who will give us 2 bets will also give us at least 1 bet on the river 100% of the time. If 1 in 2 players are calling both streets:

If we check the turn and bet the river, we get 1 bet 100% of the time (again, ignoring those that don't ever give us action)

If we bet the turn and river, we get 2 bets 50% of the time.

The EV is neutral, but betting the turn is higher variance. With no evidence to back me up, I'm going to think that >50% of your opponents who will call the river will fold the turn. Kx, yy, and ab that improves on the river will often call the river many of which would fold the turn.

I'd like to think that the times we get a bet/caller on the river are rare enough that we can use this factor to negate the chance someone two outs you.

I like your line.