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Old 12-24-2005, 09:05 PM
betgo betgo is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 792
Default Re: 33 - Bubble hand, late in $11 Stars Rebuy

There is a 10/221 chance each of your opponent has a higher pair. With some overlap, and figuring 44 or 55 probably won't call a push, there is about a 10% chance of being called and dominated.

So 10% of the time, you have about a 20% chance at 26.3 BBs, so you win 5.3xBB for a 7.7xBB loss. 10% of 7.7 is -.77 BBs.

90% of the time, you win the blinds and antes or get called by over cards. You gain 2.3xBB if no one calls. Let's assume it is the same if you are called. It is more against AKo, less against JTs. If you are called, it is probably by AK-AJ or KQ rather than a suited connector. 90% of 2.3 is +2.07.

2.07-.77 is +1.4 BBs. That is a pretty big EV+. I don't see a strong strategic reason to avoid risk. So folding is really bad. If you were pushing from third position, it would be fairly close EVwise, so I could see folding if that is your taste. You may be able to raise or limp rather than push, but folding is bad.
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