Re: an objective look at the hand
Ryno, your read in the post is that this guy is pretty passive once an opponent raises once. In this hand, you 4-bet the river and he is 5-betting. You think he is making a thin value 5-bet with the 5th nuts here? That's totally inconsistent with your description of the guy's playing style, and this is a player you claim to know well as a regular.
Even if he only needs to do this 1% of the time he holds A2, a fold is still good if he'll actually do it 0%. In fact, if he'll do it 0%, calling is a full 1 BB mistake.
good luck.
Eric
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