[Yerma]

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Yeah calling on the flop really doesn't make much sense here, even with a maniac behind us. While a turn raise might knock out AK, it only nets us like 2.2 SB (assuming our hand is always good). Some times we will be way behind, so you would have to adjust it somewhat.


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I don't understand the "nets us like 2.2 SB (assuming our hand is always good)" part. Why 2.2 SB?

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We probably have 45% equity on this flop and have a chance to get 16 SB into the middle. That is worth 3.2 SB right there. If we just call, sometimes it will be called though and then we get to raise the turn. Oftentimes it will get raised by the maniac and we will put a reraise in coming back. So even when we just call, we will usually be 3-betting or capping it anyway.


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Yes, I agree. If the maniac raises, we can 3-bet for value now. My problem with this argument is that you think we are knocking out the CO on the flop if he faces 2 cold w/AK. Unless you know him to be weak-tight, I don't think he is folding for 2 cold there! If you're trying to knock out AK, it's only going to happen on the turn. Any other hand CO might have had that only hit the flop sideways? You're still only knocking that out on the turn. That's my real problem with your argument. Those 16 SB you are trying to get into the middle are all in big danger when the river falls. You may end up gaining 3.2 SB and losing the pot. This is probably going to end up being a 20BB pot. If you let a gutshot or a one pair hand get a shot at seeing the river, you're dumping about 10% of what's going to end up being a 20BB pot. If you're up against both of those draws and could have knocked them *both* out (which would have been a coup) but took the value on the flop instead, that is horrible.

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...

The CO's line is worrisome, but is also quite fishy. His play sucks with a weak hand because nothing better is ever going to fold, and his play sucks with a strong hand since it will start slowing hands like AA down. Bad players do this [censored] all the time though, so I would not be suprised to see the joint here. He could have won a lot more by playing it straight up.


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And if he has a weak hand, you're still probably better knocking him out on the turn or forcing him to make a big, bad call. And if he has (or turns) a strong hand, the turn card may come bad and slow you down all by itself, and you'll be happy you didn't raise the flop.