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Old 12-24-2005, 12:14 AM
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Default Re: $5+1 Was this push correct?

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My (probably flawed) line of thinking went something like this:

With JJ I wanted to make more than 225 chips.

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SB=75 BB=150 1 call=150

A push/fold wins you 375. That's fairly substantial. Don't get greedy. A big hand doesn't "owe" you a big pot. Besides, at this stage your chip stack and position matter at least as much as your cards.

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When I saw the flop I got scared and thought, "hmm, that's ugly. But I've seen people calling pre-flop raises with anything. The Ax and Kx doofusses usually raise and reraise pre-flop. Let's see what happens."

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What are the odds that none of these players has an Ace or King? I'm sure it happens, but I don't think I'd want to risk my tournament on it. Most likely there's someone lurking out there that has one of these with a crap kicker and is scared to push it, but still wants a flop.

Let's face it, you have no fold equity if there's an Ace or King out there because your bet looks like a desperation bluff.

Try to look at it from their perspective. What are you representing and how would you play it if you really hit? Is your bet in line with this? I think the answer is no.

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Check, check, check. If someone has a legit hand they most likely would have raised pre-flop.

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Players at this level think slowplaying big hands is the coolest thing ever. I think you're giving too much credit here.

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If some has an Ax or Kx and they didn't (re)raise pre-flop they most likely would have bet out at me to see where they stood.

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Good point. I still think the other factors far outweigh this.

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I'm probably good to go. I'll push - being that the button on the big stack is out of the hand, I've got SB and BB covered, and I can do serious damage to UTG. No one will call me this close to the money.

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I still think it looks like a desperation bluff. And at this level, villain calling requirements are often looser than pushing requirements when they think, "Hey that guy's trying to STEAL!! I'm gonna show him some POKAR!!!!"

I think the PF push is your best bet here.
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