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Old 12-23-2005, 03:56 PM
Agthorr Agthorr is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Eugene, OR
Posts: 30
Default Re: Overpair, but raised on flop en turn: fold?

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I don't think that he could do that with KJ and QJ and even AJ is questionable for me.

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What's do you guess are his reads on you and UTG?

Let's say he thinks there's a 30% chance he has the best hand (with AJ, KJ, or QJ) and he figures that the other 70% of the time you have AA, KK, or QQ. If he figures there's a 30% chance that you'll fold a better hand if he check-raises the turn, he should do it. It's a raise for value when he's ahead, and he gains fold equity when he's behind.

Mathematically, he's paying 2 big bets (-2), 30% of the time when he's ahead he's gaining an extra big bet from you (+1*0.3) and the 70% of the time he's behind, there's a 30% chance you'll fold and gets the whole pot of around 11.25 BB (+11.25*0.7*0.3). -2 + 1*0.3 + 11.25*0.7*0.3 > 0, so this is +EV for him.

The play makes even more sense if he has two hearts, because then in those cases where you're ahead and won't fold, he may still outdraw you.

The key questions are:

<ul type="square">[*]How often does he think he's ahead? (if he has TPGK)[*]Does he think there's any chance you'll fold a better hand? (if he has TPGK)[*] What other hands could he possibly have?[/list]I think he would have reraised KK or AA preflop. I don't think he's cold-call your pre-flop raise with anything that makes two-pair. So, I'd say he has AJs, QJs, JJ, or possibly KJs. I think JJ caps the flop, although if he's very tricky he might let you put in the last bet on the flop so that he can check-raise the turn without worrying as much about you checking behind.


Assuming it'll cost you two more big bets to call down, I think you're definitly ahead the 1 time in 7 that you need to call. (though this would not be true if villian's agression factor was 0.8 or something like that)

Also, if you consistently fold in a situation like this, villian will start playing more aggresively against you because he knows he can frequently steal the pot from you.
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