Re: Flip the Cards Over
Betting about 6 to 1, he needs like 14% equity here. He has no more than 5 outs to improve, which would be 20% equity if they were all clean. The problem is that they are never always clean in a multiway pot like this, and it is entirely possible considering the pre-flop action that this will go to more bets. If it gets three-bet, he could be paying effectively 3 into a pot of like 15-17 or something like that, so his equity demands go up from like 14 to more like 16% or so.
I think on average he's go something like 12% equity here and needs like 15% on average to continue, so his mistake is something like .4-.5 sb since he's paying 2 SB here.
Obviously a lot of this depends on how you discount the two pair outs. But I think we need to discount them at least 30% or so (that'd be down to 14%) and 40% seems more likely to be right.
|