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Old 12-23-2005, 08:51 AM
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Default Re: Stupid hand or??

I don't like the flop so much. You alreayd have BB trapped so go ahead and raise the flop. If he has AK or AQ the solid TAG is going to 3-bet it and you can choose to cap.

When the BB raises like this I am not 3-betting. If you 3-bet you will most of the time knock out SB, but by calling you allow the times when you are ahead to pick up another BB from SB but don't often get re-raised. I think you are ahead of BB almost 100% of the time (only AA beats you which there is one combination of). So I think that you have to define BB's range. It would suck to get capped here, and against BB I am not sure how often we are ahead. But he has shown no care for the aggressors in this pot so I would imagine he has a flush/set.

SB has JJ---->AA (we can probably discount AA because he fast played the flop) This is 24 combos, 12 of these will call the turn (ones that contain a diamond). He also has AK/AQ which I think he calls 80% of the time (is this a rubbish estimate?). So we have a total of 28 times out of 40 that he calls. approximately 60% of time he will call to showdown. So we gain 2BBs from the call down 60% of the time from SB, (1.2BBs on average). So 5.2BB from the call down and it costs 3BB and there is 6 in the pot. This is 11.2 : 3, with 7 outs for the flush (14% chance for improval) and 2/3 outs for the full house (4-6%) (total 20%)

I do however think that raising may give us a free showdown and there is a chance we have the best hand aswell as a chance to improve to the nuts.

I like calling here because SB will often call one more bet but will less likely call 2, and we don't want to get this capped with our draw + perhaps best hand.

I call the river for one bet, and raise any A/T/Xd river!

True
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