Re: 5/10: 88
This is a math problem.
If his three-betting range is AA-99, AK, AQ or something like that, then:
There are 16 AKs. 30 pairs beating you and 12 AQs. So you are winning 16 of 58 times or whatever. That's like 29% or whatever. But we need to discount the AK hands because sometimes they'll improve to beat you. So our equity here is effectively something like 22% here since AK hits here a little under a quarter of the time.
If we're behind, we're usually paying 2.5 bets to get to showdown, though sometimes villain won't bet JJ or whatever on the river. When ahead, we'll usually make a little less than than, since we can never really value bet with confidence unless we hit an 8.
So we're looking at investing something like 2.25 BB into a pot that has 3.75 BB now and will have 5-5.5 BB usually if we win (not including what we have to put in). That requires something like 33-35% equity.
We clearly don't have that.
We should check and fold.
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