[craig r]

Well, I think the best way to start would be to find games with no edge. For example, if the "true" odds of a favorite winning is -/+140 (41.7), we might see a line of -150/+130. Neither side is a good bet obviously. The books will have an edge no matter what side people take. Even if they ended up super lopsided on one side, they will win money in the long run. In my example, the juice is 10 cents from a fair price. But you are thinking if the line was actually -150/+130 it is probably closer to a true line of 135, right? Obviously, neither side is good to bet, but if forced to bet, you would be better off taking the +130. I cannot say that you are definitely wrong, but from what I have understood, it is probably closer to the median (which is also why 20 cent lines suck, because it makes it tough to find a "true" rogue line.

I would really like Tech, DougOzzzz, and/or Sublime reply. That isn't a bash on Whipsaw and Mr.Baseball; they just don't look at everything as mathematical as Tech, Doug, and Sublime.

craig

also, go to sleep. No matter how long you stay up you will not be right [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]