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Old 12-21-2005, 11:23 PM
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Default Re: limit O8 - betting top two pair or a set on the turn (or not)

Buzz - I do agree top set as a finished hand is not the worst in this situation. I would probably call off about 1/3 overall, but it does depend on position and how many were in before me naturally. If heads-up, I'd call probably 2/3 to 3/4 of the time. The pot size usually determines my decision. Then I account for the player betting. As you know, usually in O8 no one bets into the raiser or led out on the river unless they have it. Just standard practice for low or middle limit games.
In regard to not having the flush draw to go with it: that's a weak position and a crying call usually. I hate top set or two pair with that board. Only drawing for posible half, it's just awful against 2 or more opponents.
What I was mostly concerned with in regards to this hand was Hero's position. I feel since he was the preflop raiser and driving the bus the whole way, he has to continue to keep his foot on the gas. There's a good chance one will fold and possibly two (though doubtfully). Nevertheless, if he doesn't get any new money in before the river and hits, I think it's highly doubtful he'll get paid off. I'm not sure what my decision would be if I was Hero in every situation such as this. But it seems to me betting and being aggresive in this particular situation is the best play. Even if the numbers contradict slightly. The edge seems to be about 3.5 to 1 against, and you're only getting 3 to 1 one on 4th. But I have bet on horses giving only 5/8 so what the hell. Just make take on it...lol
Thank you again!
Knoll
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