Re: Johnny Damon signs with Yankees
sublime, I don't disagree with you much on sports, but why is signing a guy like jacque, who is honestly rather terrible at everything, for $5mil a year better than getting damon at this price?
hey bug-
here is how i view the situation before i break it down into stats. damon plays in boston and has this huge persona, and jones played in minny and well....plays in minny
now the stats and money:
defense: i dont have much to work with here, but from what i do have at my disposal jones is damons equal here at this time, not counting the fact that damon has the worst outfield arm in baseball. i would think jones gets the edge here.
offense: break out the eric van inspired BRAR/$$$ formula. for those who don't know, here is how BP calculates BRAR
[ QUOTE ]
Batting Runs Above Replacement. The number of runs better than a hitter with a .230 EQA and the same number of outs; EQR - 5 * OUT * .230^2.5.
[/ QUOTE ]
so basically, its a pure offensive value stat. doesn't have any biases or anything like that, just spits out a number of runs a player is worth above average.
the weighting i use is this (3 seasons ago gets 1 weight, 2 gets 2 weight, last season gets 3 weight) this is a crude way to estimate next years production, without accounting for age perfectly.
anyways, on to jones and damon.
jones
03 23
04 9
05 17
damon
03 22
04 38
05 35
jones expects to spit out 15.5 BRAR @ 5.3m per year (his deal is actually structured in 4/5/5.5 format, which is good, but whatever)
so you are getting 2.92 BRAR for every million spent on jones (not counting defense, which i think we all agree he will be better than damon overall)
damon
projects to produce about 33.8 BRAR next season at 13m which equates to 2.6 BRAR per million
so on that level, jones provides more value for the dollar spent. now, some will say you pay a premium for those extra runs because they are worth it. i say, [censored] and teams prove it every single freaking year.
anyways, onto more info.
age/decline rate/contract length:
jones is one year younger than damon and his contract is one year shorter. so the cubs get to cut ties with him after age 33, while the yankees have damon till hes 35.
as for the rate of decline, one thing i like to look at is how often a guy walks. the ability to control the strike zone seems to be something that will prolong a players worth when other things fail.
johhny damon has gotten on base 2419 times in his career (includes all hits and BB+HBP) 630 times was the result of either being hit by a pitch or being walked. so 26% of his value so to speak is tied up in walks.
jones has reached base 1233 times with 259 times being the result of a walk. so 21% of his value is tied up in walks.
i would guess that negates the fact that jones is a year younger. seems like a fair trade off, although the yankees are still on the hook for an extra year.
so, IMO jones at that price is a better acquisition.
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