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if he's willing to call a bet on the turn, doesn't that mean i'm usually beat there?
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Aaaaaaaaaaabsolutely not.
Hands you are behind:
A3, A4, A5, 33, 44, 55, x2, AA
Hands you are ahead (or even w/) that will call this turn:
AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A9, A8, A7, A6
KQ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] through K3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
66 through KK
How many hands minraise from each group? A ton more in the latter.
And let us not forget: WE DON'T MIND IF HE DOESN'T CALL
Now rewind to the river card being turned over.
How many cards are out there that can improve hands from the second group?
...waaaaay too many for you to not lead the turn here.
And to be quite honest with you (assuming your concern might be this ->
, there
is a small enough chance that he DOESN'T have a hand from the first group, where
I don't mind getting all the chips in on the turn if he pushes over your lead.