Thread: River Play?
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Old 12-21-2005, 12:33 AM
W. Deranged W. Deranged is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 96
Default Re: River Play?

I really don't think I like bet-calling, as the Q means that we are now beating many fewer hands (all the sets and Q high two pairs have sucked out on us). There's still the possibility we're being slowplayed by a big [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. My suspicion is that we don't have a substantial equity edge on this river and so I don't like choosing to put any money in this pot. Putting in two bets seems like huge spewing against many opponents because they are simply never raising a worse hand here.

So I think it's down to bet-folding, check-folding, and bet-calling as the optimal plays here.

As it is, I have a hard time finding a significant number of hands villain might have that we are beating. We are still losing to any slowplayed big flush and any Q-high two pair or set. We are only beating a smaller flop flush, a bare Q, a hand like Qx9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I think overall the other possibilities are going to mean we don't have a clear value bet here.

If villain is passive enough, check-folding might be possible, but in generall it's not going to be since villain might be any [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or just a Q on the end if we check.

So I think the best idea is to check and call. If villain is passive he might check behind a better hand some of the time (though not usually). He'll bluff a worse hand some of the time.

The river's not a great position to be in though.
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