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Old 12-20-2005, 07:03 PM
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Default Re: Same $60 - a few hands later

Ok cool. So my calling ranges are off and I need another tool. Those were two of my questions. So I'll use Durron's calling ranges with ICM (although Durron you seem to have SB tighter on pocket pairs, but looser on high hands than the button, so that's a little confusing).

Here are the calcs:

Button: (calls 12.2% of the time - *.315=.038, *.684=.083 - so against the SB I win 3.8% of the time, lose 8.3 % of the time, don't face him the rest)
Hand 1: 31.5860 % 28.93% 02.66% { Ah5d }
Hand 2: 68.4140 % 65.76% 02.66% { 44+, A7s+, KJs+, A9o+ }

SB (calls 16.7% of the time - *.357=.060, *.642=.107):
Hand 1: 35.7634 % 29.89% 05.87% { Ah5d }
Hand 2: 64.2366 % 58.37% 05.87% { 66+, A2s+, KTs+, A6o+, KQo }

BB (calls 30.6% of the time - *.452=.138, *.549=.168) :
Hand 1: 45.0725 % 39.20% 05.88% { Ah5d }
Hand 2: 54.9275 % 49.05% 05.88% { 22+, A2s+, K4s+, Q9s+, JTs, A2o+, K8o+, QTo+ }

And 41.5% of the time I take down the blinds uncontested. Well that's a big change. Ok so lets plug it in using tournament stake using ICM:

I win the blinds: 0.1824
I beat the button: 0.2644
I lose to the button: 0.0599
I beat the SB: 0.2613
I lose to the SB: 0
I beat the BB: 0.2367
I lose to the BB: 0.0768

So the number if I make this play is: 0.15196 $EV
(0.038*0.2644+0.083*0.0599)+(0.06*0.2613+0.107*0)+ (0.138*0.2367+0.168*0.0768)+(0.415*0.1824)

And the number if I just fold (assuming it's folded to the BB, which is the lowest it would be) is: 0.1567 $EV

Interesting, pretty close, but definitely looks like a fold, assuming Durron's ranges are correct.

Anyone know of a program that can do everything above on one shot? IE take hole cards, calling ranges, stack sizes, touney payout, and spit out the push/fold $EV #s? That would be pretty cool.
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