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Hand #2
After check raising me and then capping my flop re-raise I felt it was likely I was up against either AA or KK, but not certain. So I checked behind on the turn assuming he was trying the same ploy. He checked again on the river and I checked behind again. The river is a question mark.
Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed)
converter
Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">
1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">
3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">
2 folds</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 caps</font>, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, BB calls.
Flop: (16.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, UTG+2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 caps</font>, Hero calls, BB calls.
Turn: (14.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.
River: (14.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.
Final Pot: 14.25 BB
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OK - let me tell you why I think betting the river is wrong. Hopefully somebody will argue with me. We all know that in order to bet the river in last position you have to have the best hand the majority of time (or more than that because you fear the check raise).
There's no possible hand UTG+1 could have played correctly here. In my opinion, the most likely hand is AK. JJ and TT are possible, but no more so than AA. There's no way he's calling with JJ or TT if you bet. The flop action obviously scared him ... the third club and second overcard will terrify him. It's possible he had AA and got scared by the flop action. But if he has AA he's calling your river bet every time.
A river bet is -EV. If I'm wrong, I hope somebody corrects me.