Re: Countering a Good Hand Reader
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Screw this call then bet the turn stuff. Way too many scare cards can come off that cost you turn action. Get the 4th bet in now and lead.
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I think a cap/lead is more likely to kill the action than the probability of 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s and 3 A or K possible overcards to his pair hitting are. So something like 25% of the time our action might be killed by the turn card.
Only if he's on the LAG side of TAG would I cap/lead.
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The thing is that since everyone is advocating call/lead rather than call/checkraise, it should be obvious that the 4-bet lead line is vastly superior. Especially on a board that drawy, our opponent isn't folding anything to that line. The only justification for call/leading is if you think he'll raise the turn with an overpair, letting us 3-bet, but that doesn't seem to be part of the thought process here.
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