Re: ($60) 5-handed, shopping for some blinds w/KQo
Ok let us assume that SB will only re-raise all-in with TT+, AK+ (probably too tight - but it'll do for a starting point) and that BB will do so with 88+, AQ+.
Now we hold KQo so
88,99,TT,JJ,AA 6 ways
QQ 3 ways
KK 3 ways
AK 4*3 ways = 12 ways
AQ 4*3 ways = 12 ways
So
R 500, Rr/F SB 0.2111 ( (24 + 12) / 1225 ) = 0.029%
R 500, Rr/F BB 0.2034 ( (36 + 24) / 1225 ) = 0.049 * (1 - 0.029) = 0.04754%
R 500, Both F 0.2541 ( (1-0.029) * (1-0.04754) of time ) = 0.924469%
Thus if we always fold to a push from either (SB is a no brainer) then
(0.2541 * 0.924469) + (0.2034 * 0.04754) + (0.2111 * 0.029) = 0.2349 + 0.00967 + 0.00620 = 0.2508
.. which is obviously a lot more than 0.2316. So the raise, we can say for certain, is correct.
Now if he really is re-raising with 88+,AQ+ we should obviously fold KQo here. Our equity is only 0.311366 against this range..
Fold 0.2034
Call/Win 0.3296
Call/Lose 0.1193
(0.3296 * 0.311366) + (0.1193 * 0.688634) = 0.1026262336 + 0.0821540362
= 0.1847802698 which is way less than 0.2034, definite fold.
All interesting stuff..
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