Re: Playing at breakeven
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Anybody have any advice or thoughts or want me to explain more?
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You're thinking is terribly flawed. You need to read up on statistics and variance. I don't have time to explain the subject, but I will show you a little experiment that will help you understand variance. Let's say you're a break even player. Let's assume you like to play sessions that are 248 hands long. Let's finally assume you have the same standard deviation that I do. i.e. 16.5 BB/100. The fallowing is a hundred randomly generated sessions that use the above info (results are in BB's):
-35.73
49.35
-19.33
-0.44
-18.45
17.08
26.08
52.24
11.94
-47.89
-9.92
-26.62
7.99
-9.02
37.92
23.29
38.83
26.90
11.91
-66.27
-6.81
-2.50
13.36
47.92
32.13
35.06
8.82
-17.77
53.48
-23.75
-15.74
-31.99
-54.14
-5.61
-36.25
0.39
-36.82
-11.35
40.47
6.19
-44.28
4.14
5.66
-6.93
-2.72
25.67
15.19
1.18
-9.19
27.49
-25.54
-12.55
30.56
13.27
19.01
-48.07
-29.62
11.86
-15.24
-8.04
4.28
21.56
16.28
-45.63
14.99
8.16
0.05
17.63
-4.94
-11.67
32.54
-10.64
21.23
-27.96
3.44
59.12
-53.12
9.70
-23.87
25.58
-27.64
-18.04
-44.25
-14.70
-6.93
-28.50
-12.69
24.05
-3.00
-78.16
-29.01
-5.14
10.90
12.30
-22.08
-35.30
15.13
-8.47
26.69
17.06
Let's assume you're a 1BB/100 winner:
-24.81
-38.53
-36.57
35.28
-3.40
10.10
-39.31
-24.54
23.46
37.32
37.12
-27.73
6.70
-73.88
-31.16
22.17
6.54
-15.67
-9.76
-33.84
-37.43
6.67
-0.83
6.26
-26.49
-18.91
-17.90
3.27
-36.17
34.28
-17.66
-0.89
-40.44
-21.58
11.36
40.19
3.98
-12.96
45.00
-21.84
25.51
-10.19
-33.42
31.47
15.17
18.07
-15.54
33.44
-0.23
15.49
-29.92
-2.09
26.79
-7.38
34.82
15.61
30.08
-21.90
10.62
2.77
-15.48
-62.37
-17.89
1.92
38.89
-41.49
19.42
-20.46
3.26
-63.14
-31.81
28.94
-8.16
-0.73
18.73
-15.94
-4.89
-2.80
-10.60
44.76
-29.39
29.68
-24.97
-23.51
-17.79
42.61
8.79
-20.12
-7.96
31.20
-23.23
27.40
30.12
11.96
4.58
-2.35
15.49
-19.75
-31.03
25.66
Let's assume you're a 1BB/100 loser:
23.92
-22.43
-13.54
-6.90
0.68
40.98
-30.55
-44.74
20.28
27.65
-34.23
1.23
-62.43
-32.94
5.21
-40.61
-10.34
-1.46
1.26
27.54
29.12
-25.36
21.43
-4.23
-71.55
9.95
-43.75
-0.24
-18.08
3.15
-13.34
-6.89
2.26
36.79
-0.64
-0.07
-7.86
-3.40
-13.42
13.46
-2.90
-9.17
-0.85
9.52
17.71
3.81
-10.01
5.36
-5.23
19.89
-3.48
-47.16
-0.28
-42.21
-34.57
3.09
7.18
27.83
10.61
-3.38
-17.83
5.66
-8.06
-36.95
7.74
-8.72
-17.02
-4.97
2.56
-12.59
8.43
33.29
-1.74
-20.76
-21.69
-5.75
33.17
-13.03
-51.11
-28.70
0.48
-31.31
22.84
6.51
17.84
-4.28
44.57
11.45
-1.14
-1.50
-7.13
-44.28
-21.07
-8.50
-32.94
-44.01
36.38
14.55
-11.97
6.60
Notice the variation in all of them. Drawing a pattern based on individual sessions is just wrong.
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