[Blarg]

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People saying "armed thieves hardly every hurt their victims;" but you don't know if this is one of those times when the thief will attack.

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I think this is a critical factor that I think should have been focused on more. I didn't say anything myself at the time because the abuse was getting too ugly in this thread.

But it is absolutely central. Playing with your life is playing for the highest stakes possible, and you just can't afford to take a lot of chances and hope for the best. Whether a guy lights your car on fire or something is one thing; you'll live either way. But if one of the ooutcomes of a situation is that you might die, all the statistics in the world don't mean a damn thing. You just can't afford to take that chance, any more than you can afford to take the chance in a game of Russian roulette, which also has pretty damn good odds that no harm will come. When the stakes include catastrophe, it's not okay just to play around because you figure your odds, well, anyway could be worse. This is a game YOU MUST WIN.

I don't need the opinions of a bunch of social scientists and policy wonks and internet smartasses at a moment like that. I just need to live and let other people argue about it later, even if it is in court. Statistics are of no use to you in those situations, because you can't afford to be a statistical anomaly.

Circle of life my ass.