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Old 12-19-2005, 05:54 PM
StellarWind StellarWind is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 704
Default Re: River bet - AK unimproved

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I agree that there maybe a slight bit more randomness added in to our opponent action, but I think this is largely mitigated EV-wise by a few things. First, most of our opponents are confused anyway and therefore have a tendency to make weird plays. Second, with experience we should be able to quantify this randomness just as we do after a PF 3-bet. Finally, a confused opponent would tend to be to our advantage in the vast majority of cases. Sure sometimes he'll think we're FOS when we aren't and maybe we make a bad fold, but there will also be times when he calls down or puts in many more bets with top pair because we "couldn’t possibly have an over pair or TPTK." In the end as SW said, it should not be a matter of one strategy OR the other, but rather a mixture of the two that will force you're opponents out of their comfort zone and into more post flop mistakes.

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This is spot on. A big part of learning an unfamiliar style is recognizing how your opponent will react in a different situation. Let's be clear that I don't mean that you should expect to always know exactly what he is doing. You can't because he doesn't know either. Rather you need to know the *range* of possible ways he might handle his hand in the new environment so you can put the odds back in your favor.

However once you do this you reap major benefits against less skilled players. You've adjusted and are playing as well as ever but your opponent is confused and making more mistakes than ever. Your skill advantage has increased and so should your profits.

Don't forget that the most profitable opponents are usually the hardest to read. Calling stations aren't bad because people can read their hands. Quite the opposite, you never know his cards until you see them. It's much easier to read the hand of a good 2+2 but that doesn't mean I want to play him.
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