[Nick C]

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You guys seem too focused on how we're going to lose this hand on the river.

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I'm more worried that we're behind now.

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You are not nearly focused on the fact that we're holding the second nuts (with redraws) in a 2/4 game.

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I like this argument. Still, I do think UTG's turn 3-bet says "monster" loud and clear. And partly this is because we're in a 2/4 game.

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I think you're giving way too much credit for being up against the nuts on the turn.

The only situation that I can find where we don't have an equity advantage in this pot is where we know that either UTG/BB holds exactly QJ (to retract a previous statement I made earlier - even when we are up against this hand we have 9 outs against ALL combinations of QJ - given that we're holding the J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]). There's no way that our range can be that specific and we're certainly getting value when we're ahead.

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I agree that we have an equity advantage so long as no one has QJ.

For the record, we effectively have about 9.5 outs versus Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Jx (we can't catch the Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] if it's in UTG's hand, but we can chop versus him if a different queen falls) and 10 outs versus a QJ hand with no clubs.