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Old 12-19-2005, 11:27 AM
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Default Re: expected value of tournament play

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If you are a "good" tournament player, how often would you expect to place in the money or win the whole tournament (assume a player pool of 200).

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I wouldn't classify myself as good or bad, but rather better than some and not nearly as good as many others. Good at poker is like good at many other things in life. Unless you are world class skill or in the top of your field, you are always likely to run into someone better, smarter, more talented, etc.

I just ran through my numbers again last night so I can recite them from memory:
# Tourneys: 293
Avg Entry+Rake: slightly over $33
Average Return (after entries & vig): slightly over $37
ROI: about 112%
% ITM: 18.8
% FT: 8.9
% Win: 1.7

Any serious player should be keeping similar detailed stats in an excel spreadsheet or using some other tool.

Oh yeah .... lest I forget, there is also this little thing called variance. In 293 tourneys, I've endured losing streaks of 22, 17, 15, 14 and several lesser numbers. I thought 15 and 17 was high until I flew by those numbers last week while completing a 22. As ExitOnly educated me in a PM, MTT losing streaks in the twenties are common so get used to it.

It is also worth pointing out that these results are very much in the short run, and well within ranges of statistical fluctuation. We've speculated in the past that these low limit MTTs can be viewed as a single hand of limit play. 293 hands of limit play would only be 5-10 hours of play, also very much in the short run.

Hope this helps answer some of your questions.
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