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Old 12-19-2005, 11:12 AM
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Default Re: A7soooooted. play along?

[ QUOTE ]
This is why you fold preflop. Best case you have 5 outs against KK/QQ.

Worst case you flop top pair in a ginormous pot, but you have 2 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm trying to figure out how bad the preflop actually is. Best result for the call is what happened in this hand. Everyone comes along and MP3 doesn't cap. I'm getting 13.5:2 immediate odds. Assume MP3 and CO will always call, or MP3 will cap and CO will fold, so we can automatically count 2 extra SB in the pot. 15.5:2, which is slightly less than the 16:2 needed to flop a flush draw. Adding in the rare cases of two pair, trips, backdoor flushes, boats, and quads, I think this is a pretty even overlay to call. Without a cap, I would only have to make up 0.5BB postflop, which is all but guaranteed in a pot this huge.

If I can expect at least one more player to call, then this puts my call into the profitable range. Furthermore, because so many bets are going in preflop, I can expect to get paid on my big hands, thereby increasing my implied odds for the call.

If UTG had folded, I could see myself folding this most of the time. However, her money in the pot makes it close, and increases the likelihood of another player coming along for the ride.
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