[SammyKid11]

There is so much wrong with this post.

[ QUOTE ]
Let's assume for the sake of argument we can narrow his hand holding down to two possibilities: AK or AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a bad and largely useless assumption. First of all, he could have the other two kings. Second of all, at an 11 there is NO reason to exclude legitimate possibilities that he would play QQ-TT, AQ (and maybe worse hands) in the exact same manner.

[ QUOTE ]
He has 12 possible AA combinations and 8 possible AK combinations so 60% of the time he'll have AA and 40% of the time he'll have AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

As noted above, this is incorrect. There are 6 combinations of AA (or any pocket pair except, in this instance, kings).
1) AcAs
2) AcAd
3) AcAh
4) AsAd
5) AsAh
6) AdAh

[ QUOTE ]
Now, in that 60% of the time, you'll triple up ~18% and bust out 82%.
In the 40% you'll triple up a whopping 55% of the time and bust out 45%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Notwithstanding the fact that you miscounted the combinations of AA (and thus your 60%-40% is totally off), you've also made yet another error. The presence of a third hand (which is required in this case for tripling up) must be factored into the equation as well. You can't just say "let's assume you've got the third hand beat." In fact, unless BOTH players have AA or one has AA and the other KK, your KK MUST be beating one of the two hands...PREFLOP. However, you're forgetting about the fact that the third-best preflop hand ALSO has a chance of winning. Now, if primary villain DOES have AA, the presence of the third hand does not significantly change your odds unless the third hand includes a K. However...if primary villain has AK and secondary villain has a range of QQ-99, AJs+, AJo+...you're actually winning over 63% of the time with your KK.

[ QUOTE ]
So the ev in the first instance is .18*3000 - .82 * 1000 = -280
And the ev in the second is .55*3000 - .45*1000 = +1200

(-280)*.6 + (1200)*.4 = a total ev of +312 chips. That's a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Making this calculation inaccurate, as well.

I think it is a good thing that you're thinking through hands in this manner. And I am by no means the greatest expert on this site in the math department (or any other department, really). But I would ask you to please know what you're doing before you give authoritative-sounding mathematical advice to a new player who's trying to find his way.

In this case, your faulty math at least still has you arriving at the right overall answer.....call. However, in the future it may not (plus you're teaching a new player erroneous ways to figure out when he's ahead, behind, etc.).

Best of luck.