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Old 12-19-2005, 02:51 AM
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Default Re: How did I play this hand?

PREFLOP: Its close between calling and raising. Calling looks fine to me

FLOP: When the MP3 bets, you need to raise right away, just calling here in this big pot is very bad. If the Button has a hand like AK, you need to put as much pressure on him as you can.

TURN: To make my analysis easier I will assume the button will never fold a better hand to your raise:

Even though you have 17 outs to a better hand(excluding Jack outs), for this raise to be correct there still needs to be some possibility that you may have the best hand at this point, or the turn raise doesnt make sense. Do I think theres a chance you have the best hand at this point? Yes I do.

There are many players who are capable of raising this flop with hands like AK,AJ,AT,JJ,JTs, either becuz they are aggressive or they are going for a free card. And there is still a decent chance you are ahead of the MP3 guy given that he did not 3 bet the flop and hes donking the turn(the typical opponent will usually checkraise the turn if they really like their hand)

I will admit that the probability that you have both opponents beat at this point is still low, but becuz you have so many outs(17) and the pot is large, you dont need to have the best hand here very often to make this raise correct. Therefore I like your turn raise, becuz it protects your hand the few times it is good in this spot.

I would also like to add that if you do think the button is capable of folding better hands then raising the turn is definitely the best play. Assuming the button will never fold a better hand, it is close between calling the turn and raising the turn. I think raising the turn is better than calling the turn for the reasons I mentioned.

Once your 3 bet on the turn, you have an easy call obviously.

RIVER: Given the action of the hand, I do not think your hand is good here better than 1/17.66 times unless the button is a complete maniac, so folding here is better than calling with no reads on your opponents IMO, but I wouldnt feel too bad about calling in this spot, it is only a small mistake at best.
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