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Old 12-18-2005, 06:42 PM
Shillx Shillx is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Frog and Peach Pub, Downtown SLO
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Default Re: QTo, goes passive after a steal

Boz

Do a lot of stealing against tight blinds. QT is a nice stealing hand at a table like you describe.

Calling down an unknown is fine, but your hand isn't strong enough to raise the river. In fact, call-call-raising in a spot like this is almost never correct. The key is that there is just about no way he is on a stone bluff. Say that you have

9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

And open in late position. Only an unknown BB calls and the flop is

A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

To your suprise he leads out. Now it would be a good time to call-call-raise if you miss your flush. So if the final board reads

A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

And he bets the turn and river, you would raise the river everytime. The key is that you would also be taking this line in this exact same spot with

A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

So if he has a pair of aces, he will usually be paying off our better kicker. If he was bluffing and is was drawing dead to our pair of aces, this line nets us the most since he puts in 2.5 BB with next to no equity. And if he has something like KQ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] he can either payoff our AK or throw away the best hand when we pop 98 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

The problem in your hand is that the villian will have a stronger hand on average and he can't be bluffing. So when you flop something good, goto war right away for the biggest payoff. When you flop a marginal hand you calldown and you fold when you miss. The problem with the river raise is that it doesn't marginalize his good hands. So if you raise the river with a busted draw (when the board offers them), he calls with AQ and wins. If you raise with your QT, he calls with AQ and wins. You have to put him in a tougher spot on the river with that AQ. The only way to do it is to play something like a set of 8s this way, and that is terrible if he is ready to goto war on the flop with hands like KK and AQ.
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