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Old 12-18-2005, 12:28 PM
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Default Re: Lay Down a Full House? - MY THOUGHTS

OK - I suppose it would be fair to say that everyone agrees with the call.

Here's my thought process, and why I didn't think it was automatic, focusing only on his possible holdings:

On the flop, he could certainly be bluffing, but it doesn't seem quite right - I would assume he would fold to a decent-sized CR if he had nothing. So, I think he has a decent hand. Here are the possibilities and my thoughts...

AK/KK - Not likely. He would probably have raised pre-flop.
KQ/KJ/KT - Definitely a possibility. I would consider these likely, in that he may think he's beaten, but wants to call to see the turn.
K9 - Possible. It's not a hand I would play there, but especiialy suited a lot of people will.
K8 - Probably not - I see a lot fewer people playing this hand.
99/88 - Definitely possible. He might have called to draw in the button and is planning a raise on the turn.
98 - Possible. Especially suited, I can see him playing this.

So, after the flop, I'm thinking he has KQ/KJ/KT/K9/99/98/88.

When the 8 hits on the turn, I'm obviously quite happy. I bet out, hoping to keep him somewhat interested in the hand, but get some cash in there.

His all-in raise on the turn really had me going, which is why I had such a tough time making the call. Going back to the earlier possibilities -

KQ/KJ/KT - I don't see this at all.
K9 - Maybe - this seems unlikely given that the board just paired - I would think he'd be a little more cautious - but I could see it.
99 - Maybe. I think he would have put in a smaller raise with this hand to keep me in, but I could see this, too.
98 - Certainly possible. I think this is pretty likely based on the way he has played so far.
88 - Not possible any more.

So, faced with these options, my thinking is that he most likely has 99 or 98. 98 I can beat, 99 I'm toast. The only problem is, I still didn't feel good about the hands I had him on - something just wasn't clicking for me. That's what made this a hard call for me.

So, can anyone offer any thoughts on this line of thinking? Am I way off, should I have thought of something else, etc.?

I'll post the results separately so people can comment on this before they see what he was actually holding.
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