Hey,

Good post.
The question I have on this play is not the 3 bet issue...though I would. Rather, it is the fold issue. Can we honestly say that we are MORE THAN ~89% SURE that we are beaten on the turn or MORE THAN ~91% SURE that we are beaten on the river? Yes, there is no question that UTG+1 waking up is worrisome, but to that level? I also agree that CO is just most likely not a factor.

At this level of play, there are just too many people who play the turn and river incorrectly that I have to believe we are going to win this hand more than 1 in ~10 times. I think we have to at least check / call it down here.

Hight blood sugar gets you in 20 years, low blood sugar gets you today.
Fammy