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The facts I provided, combined with a google search, will provide more than enough proof that jason_t's math doesn't apply.
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Yes but we already knew that. What do we have against the real stuff:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_Earth_hypothesis
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"The rare Earth hypothesis is a response to the Fermi paradox which explains why we might expect a planet such as Earth to be very rare. Combined with the additional
assumption that an Earth-like planet is a prerequisite for the development of advanced life , this offers an explanation for the current lack of evidence of extraterrestrial civilisations."
This seems like the absurd part.