View Single Post
  #2  
Old 12-18-2005, 12:48 AM
AaronBrown AaronBrown is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 505
Default Re: odds people - what are the chances of this happening?

I'm not sure what you mean by the odds. Hero's play is unusual, but it's hard to put a number on it. I would expect him to fold preflop, make a larger bet after the flop, and fold in the face of strength.

If you mean the odds that a flush will be beaten by two higher flushes, given the betting the odds are excellent. We can compute a number if you ignore the betting and just ask: given your hand and the board, what are the odds that two of the five other players each have two spades, including one higher than a six?

There are 45 unseen cards, which can generate 990 sets of pocket cards. 25 of those beat you, so there's 1 chance in 39.6 a specific other player beats you. Given that happens, there are 43 remaining cards which can be arranged 903 ways. There's 1 chance in 68.4 that a specific second player will beat you. There are 10 ways to select the two players that beat you, so overall there is about 1 chance in 217.
Reply With Quote