View Single Post
  #2  
Old 12-17-2005, 11:09 PM
ohnonotthat ohnonotthat is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: New Jersey - near A.C.
Posts: 511
Default Re: Milking a set for the super #1 ev.

Here's my fast answer (heading out to meet friends) - I'll think it thru and add to it tho I doubt I'll change my mind.

There is no 2-flush meaning no "big" (12 or 15 out) draw and almost no legitimate draw of any kind (7-5 ?) to this flop. If you cap it you're doing three things that all both bad.

1. you are all announcing middle/bottom set - what else can a reasonable player have here ?

- Top set ? . . . You limped with QQ from the cutoff ? - Highly unlikely.

- AQ ? . . . Same as above, albeit to a slightly lessor extent, but who limps with AQ from the CO after two limp in front ?

- KQ ? . . . Not a hand you ought to cap with here (though some might)

- QJ, QT ? . . . I think not.

- A6, A4 ? . . . Maybe to try for a check-through on the turn but very unlikely.

- 75 ? . . . Possible but first you had to have played it then you have to cap with it here - that's alot of "ifs".

2. You are, as you noted, offering a cheap exit to one (and possibly two) opponents that are all but drawing dead.

3. You are stopping the limp/3-bettor from firing at the turn - something you don't have any reason to want ? This is the least of the three problems but it does make it a hat trick.

- Call, don't cap.

And while you said you wanted to end the discussion here, I suggest you think before auto-raising the turn (assuming you didn't cap here); there is a good case for waiting until the river before lowering the boom.

*

I have never played at Full Tilt but I am assuming your opponents were lucid; most (yeah, most) 3-6'ers are. Had this been Party 1-2 or the like my advice would be load, lock, fire and grin; that bunch seldom makes any effort to think about what you might have. "How much to me, dealer" is what this type says in cardrooms; online their favorite choice of the pre-select buttons is "check-call". They're often indifferent to whether they're calling 1 bet or 2 (or 3).
Reply With Quote