[Big_Jim]

Sorry, for being a jackass about my earlier response, but I didn't feel like going over it, because I felt that the errors in your logic were obvious, and that you would see them when you looked at it again.

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say you get called 50% of the time and you're a 2.5-1 dog on average (when you get called).

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I think that these assumptions are pretty bad. You admit to them being generous, but nonetheless....

a) When he's NOT putting a squeeze on us (which most players are not), he often has a big pair, in which case, we are about a 4:1 dog.
b) Even when he IS putting a squeeze on us, we are often behind (maybe dominated), and it will be difficult for him to fold getting fantastic odds.
c) You are ignoring SB (although, i do feel that he's usually not a factor)

[ QUOTE ]
If you fold you lose $12.

If you push:
50% of the time you win $67
14.3% of the time you win $197
35.7% of the time you lose $142
-------------------------------------
average win of $11

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Don't include your prior action when doing an EV calc.

My off the cuff response was based on a traditional EV calc, not your wacky "results from folding vs. results from pushing" calc.


I did an EV calc, but came up with exactly the same thing MrFeelNothin did.

So, GIVEN YOUR ASSUMPTIONS, a push is marginally correct. However, I feel your assumptions are bogus.

My assumptions would be that we get called more often (say 75-80%), and that we have worse equity on average. (Say 3:1)