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Old 12-16-2005, 08:45 PM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: L.A.
Posts: 598
Default Re: limit O8 - betting top two pair or a set on the turn (or not)

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When you call on the river you do not always lose. Sometimes you pick off a bluff. So the last number needs to be adjusted. Let's say you catch a bluffer about 20% of the time when you call on the river. (I assumed half these times you scoop.) The numbers would then look like :

• 8/44, Hero scoops and wins 4 big bets fresh money
• 5/44, Hero splits and wins 1 big bet fresh money, and
• 3/44, Hero scoops by catching a bluff and wins 4 big bets fresh money
• 3/44, Hero scoops by catching a bluff and wins 1 big bet fresh money
• 25/44, Hero loses 2 big bets

Under this scenario betting the turn is profitable.

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Chaos - Thanks.

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Did I miss something?

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No. I did.

Thanks again.

Buzz
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