[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
The two things I got from these sites is this:

1. Don't be afraid of what your opponenets MIGHT have, make your bets and calls and plays based on the probable RANGE of hands.

2. Put money in the pot when you are ahead and have a superior hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Will - It's hard to disagree with that advice.... and yet....

[ QUOTE ]
I think, keeping that in mind, leading the betting, and perhaps even raising with this particular hand is the way to go. Why?

1. You MIGHT have the best hand. Top two is a very respectable holding though no rock crusher. You may be up against wraps and such.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you probably do have the best hand. (Thus the enigma).

[ QUOTE ]
2. You certainly have the best draw. Any Q or non-pairing diamond will give you the nuts high.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. You seem to have a very decent, if not the best, draw.

[ QUOTE ]
3. It is not possible for anyone to be freerolling on you. No matter how bad it is, you can still scoop this pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[ QUOTE ]
For that reason, I think you are overthinking this a bit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Possible.

[ QUOTE ]
What are the likely hands you are against.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very hard to tell. You can put a couple of cards in a tight player's hand, ace-deuce maybe, but the other two cards may be almost random. And various opponents may be playing all kinds of stuff. I wouldn't use simulations where you have to put four cards in each opponent's hand.

[ QUOTE ]
....The truth, however, lies somewhere in the middle.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very hard to tell. In simulations I have run where you don't have to stipulate all four cards an opponent holds, it seems that top two pair plus a nut flush draw (which seems very strong) should not bet the turn.

And the reason is if you get enough money into the pot, you're almost surely going to be calling a single bet on the river even though you don't improve your top two pair. Well... I suppose an alternative would be to fold to a bet on the river, but weak play like that opens other doors for your opponents.

I'm thinking maybe we should use game theory principles here. Not sure exactly how.... maybe merits more thought....

[ QUOTE ]
With that being said, on this particular hand, let's look at the three MAIN reasons to bet or raise:

1. Because you have the best hand and want to get more money in the pot. That could certainly be the case here. It is THE major point that Steve Badger keeps making on his site. You put money in when you have the best of it, not when you have a lock. 2 different things (and, I know you know this).

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's probably generally true. But I don't know as it's always true. Who am I to disagree with Steve Badger, and yet...

[ QUOTE ]
2. To get better hands to fold. Boy, if you can get a set of Tens, sixes, or threes to fold here that is a major coup. They just might do it if you put in a raise

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you completely on this point. Getting a better hand to fold is the major reason to raise, in my humble opinion.

[ QUOTE ]
3. To manipulate the pot so it is SOOOO big that you can't fold. By that I mean, there are ALOT of scare cards as you pointed out. By making the pot bigger you absolutely lock yourself into calling on the river which is probably the best thing to do, as your entire post points out, except in unusal circumstances.

[/ QUOTE ]

That just doesn't make sense to me. Getting stuck if I can avoid it just seems foolish to me.

[ QUOTE ]
P.S. - For what it is worth, I'm not sure we should have voluntarily entered the pot with this hand. It's not total garbage, but it has some ugly gaps.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Of course you're going to play it in the unreaised big blind. I also would probably play it for one bet from the button and maybe even the cut-off and small blind, depending. I'm not advising anyone to play (or not play) the hand.

[ QUOTE ]
P.P.S - this is a troubled turn card for us, but what flop and turn were we hoping for? It doesn't get a whole lot better for us than this. This hand build top two pair and nut flush draws. We got it and now seem to be complaining a little.

[/ QUOTE ]

The flop was not ideal, but was good - clearly good enough to continue.

The turn was bad, but clearly not bad enough to fold.

I'm no complaining. (And the hand itself is from a recent post by Tex that got me thinking).

I'm wondering about the advisability of initiating money into this pot with this hand/board/#opponnets/history. At first glance it seems like you should. And yet I think you do better, on average, when you don't.

At any rate, thanks for your input.

Buzz