[Rizen]

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but do you want any FE? if you c/r a-i, you only want him to fold if he has a better hand (which won't happen) or if he has the odds to call and try to draw out on you.

if he bets 1k and you push, he needs to win the hand around 30%, or have about 13 outs, to have odds to call. the only way he has that is if he picked up a flush draw, which isn't too likely. KJ/T9, his best drawing hands, only have 9 outs, so you don't mind having no FE against that hand.

if he bets full pot of 1550, then there is 4650 in the pot and villain has to call 1810 more, so he needs to win the pot 22% to have odds, or about 9.5 outs. if he has KJ, you're indifferent in terms of cEV whether he calls or folds but would prefer not to gamble. if he has KQ (7 outs) or AJ (2 scoop, 2 chop), you don't mind having no FE.

this isn't like semi-bluffing all-in with a draw, where you always don't want to get called. it's also good sometimes if a hand that's drawing very thin feels PC'ed.

the more important consideration is what the bet size says about the strength of his hand. does a set often bet full pot where KJ only bets 1000? the other way around? i would guess (total guess, as i have not played much on ub) that AK tends to bet 1000, TT bets pot, AJ bets pot, and KJ bets 1000.

sometimes i wish i could take 24 hours on tough hands.

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Interesting analyzation. I guess I'm lucky he checked behind. I dunno, the more we talk about it the more I think betting or CRing on the turn is kind of a wash. Either way you're hoping to get chips in the middle with the best hand, but your chips are all going in anyways if you're behind.

From all of the analysis so far it would seem that we just need to decide on the turn if we think we have the best hand or not, and if we do, do we want to go all the way with this hand?

After all the discussion, I think that if we decide we want to go all the way with this hand that betting out is better than CRing, because I think betting out makes it more likely that a hand behind you will commit themselves (since those behind you will often take a free card when you check). You also sometimes get him to call his draw on the turn then fold the river giving you a few more chips.

If you don't want to go all this way I think you need to check with the intent of calling any smallish bet (by smallish I mean 600 or less) for value (after all, you could be ahead, and you are probably drawing to 4-6 outs) or folding to any larger bet, and when he checks behind I think the hand is somewhat straightforward on the river depending on what card falls.

FWIW at this stage of the tournament with these stacks I still feel that in marginal situations such as this where you could easily lose a large chunk of your stack if you're behind you're better off preserving your chips than gambling. If the chip stacks were reversed I'm much more likely to get all in here, but given the particular situation, I like the way I played it after deeper analyzation.

-Rizen