[ChrisCo]

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- if you raise, you open yourself up to a reraise either from MP or a blind, which would be really bad.
- if you raise and MP calls, he will correctly get away from an Axx flop, but will stack you if he has you beat.
- if you make it, say, 8k then an MP call will bring your stack to 25k and the pot to 19k. this is an awkward spot, and if your chips go in, you're usually drawing to 3 outs.

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Looking at the way you analyzed I am now leaning towards a push. I am going to be committed to the pot if I make any kind of raise and one of the blinds makes a stand. MP3 likely didn't limp with a pocket pair, and I will push out most weak aces that I am dominated by. I believe his most likely hand is something like JTs or A5. It is a bit of an overbet but I like this line looking at the situation now.