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Old 12-16-2005, 02:43 PM
schwza schwza is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 113
Default Re: TPTK scary board 50/100

ugh, now i'm reconsidering the bet. if you bet 1k, which i agree is the smallest i want to bet, villain only has 2.4k left after a call. if he pushes the turn, there's 1.5k+1k+1k in dead money and only a 2.4k bet, so we're getting better than 2:1, and we almost always have 4-6 outs if we're behind. if we need to win 30% of the time, and we suck out 15% when we're losing, i don't see how we could fold to a turn push. but i'm not too psyched about getting the chips in that way.

if we check the turn, what's the plan? say villain bets 1100. check/call T, check/fold blank river? we're still getting well over 2:1. check/call T, check/call river? hard to imagine a worse hand betting into us again on the river. check/fold turn? KQ/KJ/KT/AJ/AT all bet here sometimes.

how about c/r turn a-i? villain would be getting good enough odds that he can't really fold a lot of 1 pair + draw hands that he doesn't quite have odds to draw too. it would also reduce the problem of a hand like JT shutting down on the river if we hit (A, Q, K are all very scary to JT) but stacking us if we don't. similarly QT would not get to stack us if a Q hits but shut down down if a K/A hits. the downside is that the hands we really want to play against - AJ/AT - probably do fold to the c/r.
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