[betgo]

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Is this a case of the old "wrong place at the wrong time" cliche? Plan a bank robbery for years and just as you're peelin' out with the loot, the SWAT team van drives by.

Gigabet: Established an image of loose pre-flop play combined with passive post-flop play. An image he obviously worked to create a situation exactly like this. One where he could manipulate the pot and his opponent using bet size and table image to force JJ out with the best hand. The way he played the hand out and based on his read, she could conceivably lay down a range of hands, all of which were best (JJ-AA, and AK). We can't criticize the play of Giga here, he set an elaborate trap, and trusted himself and his reads. When it comes down to it, you have nothing else to count on but yourself and the reads you've developed throughout the tournament. A victim of bad luck here?? OR...a victim of a better player...on this hand anyway...

JJ: Established a weak tight image. Showed the ability to lay down a big hand in the face of heat. However, what better reason for such an image than to use it against an opponent attempting to bully her?? Her bet on the flop is key. Without a sizeable pot, there is no reason for Giga to continue with this elaborate bluff. The 1/4 pot bet on the flop could be construed as a probe bet, and attempt to win a small pot but allow an exit should she face some heat. The rest just fell into place for her, she really did nothing more of significance after that, as Giga played right into her. The smooth call turn could have been suspicious, and could have slowed down giga, but in his defense, she hasn't given any indication of supreme strength here...she could have pushed the turn, but when that didn't happen, giga could be confident she's on the defensive and looking simply for a check-check and showdown on the river.

All in all, I think Giga was outplayed on this hand, but through no fault of his own, because this play SHOULD have worked. And I know i'm a lot better at playing with the nuts than I am at setting an elaborate bluff. And maybe that's what happened for JJ. And there are some great posts here (shaniac, Diablo, roman, lots more). I'm truly on the fence here and still flopping back and forth.

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Good analysis. I think Gigabet was carried away with setting up the elaborate bluff and didn't pay enough attention to the action and board on this hand.

I think the play looks worse than it is based on Gigabet's assertion that she would not call with AK or AA. What makes this play powerful is that she probably need atleast top pair or an over pair to call. It is possible QQ or JJ would call, but an awful lot of hands are folding.

I am sure Gigabet's aggressive approach does work frequently, or he wouldn't be back in second place. Of course getting allin against 2 players with AA helped.

This hand give a feeling of the strength of Gigabet's play, even though he made a bad misread.

There are a lot of people who are afraid to make a semibluff for all their chips. Look at the play Varkonyi made where he made a 3rd raise allin with QTs versus Hellmuth button versus BB. He had the worse hand, but it was a good play, it doubled him up, and helped set up some bad calls by his opponent's when he had big hands later on.

I know Varkonyi got lucky and Moneymaker got lucky, but making well timed big bluffs and semibluffs helped weak players like that win the big one.

Here Gigabet made a pure bluff for almost all his chips. It didn't work because his opponent had the nuts, but it works pretty often. A lot of people don't have the nerve to make that kind of play. He also picked a spot and set the play up with his prior play and bets on other streets. Not only do you win the pot frequently with plays like that, but you get a lot more action when you push and you are not bluffing.