Re: WOW
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Glynn Beebe raises to $36,000 from the cutoff position, Joe Cassidy reraises to $136,000, and Beebe moves all in for $391,000. Joe Cassidy calls, and Beebe shows Ks-Jd. But Cassidy shows -- the Hammer! 7h-2h! Beebe is a favorite to double up here. The flop comes Qc-5c-5s, and Beebe is still in the lead with king high. But the 7d falls on the turn, giving Cassidy the lead with a pair of sevens. Beebe needs a jack or a king to stay alive, but the river card is the 2d.
Glynn Beebe is in shock as he is eliminated in 32nd place -- by seven-deuce. Joe Cassidy now has a huge lead with $1.85 million in chips.
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Cassidy has 2 mil in chips, and he just called 200K with A-high and called a 260K all-in reraise with 72. I think it's safe to say nobody is going to be playing back at him without a hand.
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He was getting 2.2-1 pot odds, his cards were suited and likely live. If he folds in that situation, people won't know he had 72 and will think he is weak/tight and play back at him. Very easy call.
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Ok man. "Very easy call"??? Just going on math here, Villain doesnt have to have an overpair very often to utterly squash his pot odds. Even if he has 77 or better 20% of the time Cassidy needs to fold, and I suspect the % could be substantially higher. This is not even bringing into account the fact that his garbage over-reraise is not a good one if it forces him to call an allin and put that many chips in the middle with way the worst of it. Again, I would like to see an account of this hand from a reliable source, as these details are often botched by the websites, as I suspect it was here.
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First of all, this is button versus blind, so he is not going to have a pp that often. Second of all, he is a 2.1-1.7 dog against 22-66. Villain is not raising on the buttonwith 77-AA that often. So if you average it out, he is getting better than 2.2-1.
Say he is 15% against an overpair 20% of the time and 35% against over cards or a small pair 80% of the time. .2x.15 + .8x.35 = .03 + .28 = .31 or 2.3-1. I think this is about the worse case.
Furthermore, even if it were 2.5-1, the advantage of defending his blind strongly and being seen calling the 3rd raise with 72 outweigh a slight EV-.
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