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Old 12-16-2005, 09:14 AM
tigerite tigerite is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 360
Default Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop

No overcall
0.85

evF Push/fold 0.1083
evL Push/lose 0
evW Push/win 0.176

Assume raising with 77+,A9s+,ATo+,KQ

6 ways for 77,88,99,TT,QQ,KK,AA = 42
1 way for JJ = 1
16 ways for AK,AQ,AT,KQ = 64
4 ways for A9s = 4
8 ways for AJ = 8
Total = 119 / 1225 = 9.714%

Assume calls with TT+,ATs+,AJo+

6 ways for TT,QQ,KK,AA = 24
1 way for JJ = 1
16 ways for AK,AQ = 32
8 ways for AJ = 8
4 ways for ATs = 4

Total = 69 / 1225 = 5.633%

Therefore
Re-raise fold % rrF = (119 - 69) / 119 = 0.420168
Re-raise push/win % rrW = 0.505928 (against TT+,ATs+,AJo+)

So..
(rrF * evF) + ((1 - rrF) * evL * (1 - rrW)) + ((1 - rrF) * evW * rrW)

0.85 * [ (0.420168 * 0.1083) + (0.579832 * 0 * 0.494072) + (0.579832 * 0.176 * 0.505928) ]

= 0.85 * [ 0.0455041944 + 0 + 0.051630170960896 ]
= 0.85 * [ 0.097134365360896 ]
= 0.0825642105567616

Combine with the 0.010419695 (when overcalled) from before

= 0.0929839055567616

Still less than 0.0935, so it's still a fold, but extremely marginal now.
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