[tigerite]

Well I didn't complete the "what happens after you" part for when people overcall with QQ+,AK+. Actually, I'll do that now I guess.

0.15 * [ (0.166667 * 0.638 * 0.0541) + (0.833333 * 0.638 * 0) + (0.166667 * 0.362 * 0.1843) + (0.166667 * 0.362 * 0.1847) + .... ) ]

Well we can straight away take out 0.83333 * 0 as that's just 0 and everything else is multiplied by 0.166667 so

0.15 * 0.166667 * { [ 0.362 * (0.1843 + 0.1847 + 0.1429 + 0.1811 + 0.1823 + 0.1807) ] + [ 0.638 * 0.0541 ] }

= 0.15 * 0.16667 * [ (0.362 * 1.056) + (0.638 * 0.0541) ]
= 0.15 * 0.16667 * [ 0.382272 + 0.0345158 ]
= 0.010419695

From before

0.85 * 0.0867554952
= 0.07374217092

So the actual answer is

0.010419695 (when overcalled) + 0.07374217092 = 0.08416186592

The overcall chance costs you maybe 0.25% $EV. Not a lot but slightly significant.

Anyway it would take me really too long to work out if you have less chips! But I would guess the push would be much better then, yes. Also if he has a looser range we have to define which of that range he calls with. Gimme those two ranges and I can do it.