Re: open-ender...lotsa bets
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I'd fold. I think you're drawing to a 3-out chop too often to continue.
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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] You don't think the 7's are clean? or you put SB on QJ?
EDIT: It's a fold either way.
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the 7's are clean but somebody has a hand like JT/ KJ too often here
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3 [7] outs
3 [Q] outs 66% of the time someone holds a J
66% drawing to half pot or 1.5 outs. = 1 out.
33% drawing to 3 outs. = 1 out.
Total 5 outs. 5 outs requires 7.4:1 pot odds.
Pot is offering 14:2 and with two lags you could probably make that up on the river.
You could add a little to your immediate odds for the other 7 and Q out as not always will someone hold a flush draw.
But you could take a little away for the times when more than one villian holds a J.
But what tips this to a fold for me is the SB rock 3betting the turn. The chance that he holds QJ already is greatly increased.
+ I don't trust myself to fold for multiple bets if the Q or 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] was to fall.
It's a little closer than I first thought.
You could do some more complicated maths about frequency of holdings etc etc etc. but we all agree anyway.
Fold.
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