[cold_cash]

I think the likelihood that he's playing a draw this way is pretty small, and that's a pretty crappy flop for your Jacks.

I realize this is a blind on blind deal, but unless this guy is overly aggressive I would lay down to the flop raise; he's probably not a very good player, and he's giving you a chance to get off the hook. I'd take it.

Sure, sometimes he'll pull a stunt like this w/ JT or two diamonds, but I think that will be a very small minority of the time.

It's also going to cost you 2 bets to showdown and I don't think there's anyway you're good here 25% of the time, which is why im leaning toward folding the flop.

The turn bet is also problematic. What are you going to do if he just calls? I don't think he ever just flat out folds to your turn bet, and when he just calls you you're going to have a heck of a time on the river while he'll likely be able to play it pefectly.

Sure, if he raises you can get away, but why spend the extra bet and a half to find out what you're already 90% sure of?