[ZeroPointMachine]

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This particular situation is very exploitable and I do it quite often. I believe it is a high varience, but +EV, move.


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This is one of the key points I was curious about. However, can we really expect a solid/tag opponent to fold AK/AQ on a Ahigh flop?

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OOP against a weak-tight pre-flop raiser early levels.

What is his range?


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My guess would be JJ-AA, AK, AQs. Possibly add in TT, AQ, AJs.

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Flop comes specifically A-rag-rag or K-rag-rag with no flush draw.

I check. Villian bets 1/2-3/4 pot.

Which hands in his range does he bet?


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I would expect a c-bet 95% of the time, esp HU

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What if any does he check?

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Warning bells: he has a monster, unless he is really really weak/tight.
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I raise somewhere between min-raise and pot.


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I would be tempted to raise also, except much more likely in an A high flop rather than a K high flop.

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What percentage of his range does he fold?

I'm willing to make this move because I think the ~1300 stack gives me more flexibility to pickup small pots early and helps me more than a ~700 stack early hurts me.

Thoughts??

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This is the key. He only checks monsters. This would include top set, and many times TPTK(or AA on a K high board) because the board is so non-threatening and he might induce a bluff on the turn. Part of making this play successful is to never make that bluff.

His pre-flop range is so narrow that the percentage of hands he checks is much higher than the 5% you allowed. But that means the percentage of hands he can call your raise with just went down.