[Entity]

I did this in my head while driving so someone can correct me if it's off. I figured if he's capable of triple barrell bluffing about 20% of the time he has a draw, then it's a good calldown from the turn on.

Basically it goes something like this:

Range of hands:

Hands that beat us:

JTs - 4
JJ/TT - 12
99 - 3
77 - 3
88 - 1

Total - 23 hands. Maybe add A9s-ish hands for 2 or maybe 3, depending on suits, more combinations. 25 hands we're losing to.

Draws:
AT/KT - 12+12 = 24 combos
QTs - 4 combos

28 total combos.

If he's capable of triple-barrel bluffing 20% of the time that he has a draw, averaging our calldown out to around 4.5:1 (it's not quite as bad as odds of 4.25:1 because there are some rivers that we will fold and some improvement we can have against his range of "good" hands), then he has .2x28=5.6 combos that we're ahead of, and 25 combos that we're behind. We're good 5.6/30.6 times. 25 times we lose 2 bets (-50BB) and 5.6 times we win a 10.5BB pot (58.8BB). 8.8BB/30.6 possibilities gives us a profit of around .287BB.

Most aggressive opposition will have a higher TBB frequency -- from my experience -- than 20% here. I don't think it's as high as 50% or anything ridiculous but I definitely think it's high enough to make the calldown "standard," to try to flesh out sfer's (I refuse to call him The DaveR) one-word comment.

Jason mentioned to me over AIM that we could possibly add T9s and J9s to the PFR hands, but once we start to add a wider range, in general, we can increase the overall aggression of the player and the range of hands he'd be willing to play more aggressively after the flop. I honestly think that we can expect a TBB rate of around 25% when he's holding a semibluffing hand (7 total bluffs), we're looking at being good around 19.4%, which is still going to show a bit of a profit.

Rob