[jubeirm]

Two questions define this hand for me. How passive is he and how likely is your ace still live?

12 Outs:
Push, fold => 9.35x
Push, win => .45(1-x)48.5
Push, lose => .55(1-x)0.0
Break even => 21.8-12.4x = 21.2
x < 4.6% => +EV

15 Outs:
Push, fold => 9.35x
Push, win => .55(1-x)48.5
Push, lose => .45(1-x)0.0
Break even => 26.6-17.3x = 21.2
x < 31.1% => +EV

Doesn't look good to me. How aggresive is he? If you call and catch on the turn can you get another $7 from him, assuming you fold in you miss?

--Jubei