[Roadstar]

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*grunch*
I fold preflop when it's 3 to me. With this kind of action preflop, what are you going to do when you hit your set with A, K or Q on the board?

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Well this table was a mix of LAGs and LPPs. Out of the past 10 hands, 3 were probably capped preflop - so I thought I had the odds here. A controversial play I suppose, and Jake pointed out (and its a good one) that a cap behind me makes it harder to make up on implied odds.

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Flop: Since you're there, you actually have the odds to chase the 2-outer, so I call as well.

Turn: I agree with your read on the outs, and I call here for 15:1

River: You are a shameless luckbox. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I understand your reasoning on hoping for overcalls, but I believe I would raise. I think you're ahead here often enough to make it profitable.

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Yeah I'm a shameless luckbox [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I did pick up a bunch of outs on the turn tho!

I don't think I'd raise because of the overcalls. Think of it this way:

If I raise the river, ppl behind me are likely to fold and IF I'm ahead MP2 calls so I get an extra 1BB. If I'm behind, MP2 will 3 bet, I (not having the disclipine in face of a monster pot) will make a crying call and lose 2BB.

BUT if I just call (still thinking I'm ahead), I'm likely to count on the 2 behind me to call due to the size of the pot and the likelihood of them holding something like AA or KK. So if I call, 2 overalls, that is an extra 2 BB if I win, WITHOUT having to put in another BB myself. If I lose I lose.

So in summary:

Raise: Cost - 2BB to win 1 more BB if ahead, Cost - 3 BB if 3 bet and likely to lose

Call: Cost - 1BB to win potentially 2 more BB (but probably at least 1 as is the case here), Cost 1BB if I lose since aggressor can't raise his own bet.

I guess we could factor in a raise behind me but thats less likely.